By Qamar Agha appeared in "The Hindu" on June 23, 1999

FOR THE first time, Pakistan is totally isolated in both the Islamic world and the rest of the international community. It has failed to get any support in its latest standoff with India on the Kargil intrusion. The countries earlier supporting Pakistan over Kashmir have advised it to sort out its differences with India through peaceful means. The reason is the very forces, which have infiltrated into Kargil, have also turned against several Islamic countries for maintaining closer relations with the West.

The situation is so bad that even the hard line Jamaat-e-Islami chief, Qazi Hussein Ahmad, had to admit that Pakistan stood ``isolated internationally'' and that the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) was ``almost dead''. The world community's reaction reflects that ``our foreign policy has totally failed'', he said.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt are the three most important Islamic countries with influence in their regions. They are not happy with the Pakistan-backed Islamic militant organisations which have turned against them and are involved in terrorist activities. Therefore, none of the Islamic countries is prepared to back Pakistan's Kargil adventure. No one even offered to mediate because India does not want third party involvement.

Saudi Arabia, which maintains closer relations with Pakistan, has told Islamabad to settle its dispute with India by peaceful means and not to use force in Kashmir as that would result in large- scale human and material losses in both the countries.

The shift in the Saudi policy is basically motivated by the kingdom's internal as well as external factors. The country is facing serious financial difficulties due to a fall in oil prices and is not prepared to commit large-scale economic assistance to Pakistan. Besides, it is not happy with the Islamic militants involved in the Kargil conflict as the same Afghan-backed militants are also fomenting trouble in the Saudi Kingdom. Riyadh is now distancing itself from the Taliban Islamic militia ever since the latter refused to arrest Osama Bin Laden, a Saudi dessident living in Afghanistan.

Osama bin Laden is involved in not only the killing of several Saudi and American security personnel in the Kingdom but also waging a terror campaign there calling upon the people to overthrow the monarchy. Saudi Arabia has also cut down the funding of the seminaries run by religious organisations in Pakistan. Besides, the change in the U.S. policy towards the South Asian region is influencing Saudi decisions.

Egypt too has called for a peaceful settlement of the Kargil dispute. The secular Arab Governments have always maintained closer relations with India because of New Delhi's consistent support to the Arab cause. Some of these countries including Egypt, Algeria and Yeman are facing serious problems due to the rise of militant Islamic movements. The militants operating in these countries were trained in Afghanistan. Thus, these secular and nationalist Arab governments are critical of Pakistan's support to the Islamic fundamentalist organisations. They do not approve of what Islamabad is doing in Kashmir now.

Iran and the other Central Asian republics have more or less taken a similar stand. Like the other Islamic countries Iran, too, is not in favour of any mediation - a setback to Pakistan's effort to internationalise the Kashmir problem. The Pakistan- backed Taliban militia, which gained control over northern Afghanistan, has killed several Iranian nationals. Teheran feels that the Taliban moves are aimed at curbing its influence in the region and has even blamed Pakistan for what is happening in Afghanistan. It is also concerned with the growth of the anti- Iranian and anti-Shia militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is significant that the majority population in Kargil is Shia.

The newly-independent Central Asian republics are also facing the problem of Islamic militancy, which in fact has the tacit support of Pakistan. Islamabad's game plan is to gain access to these oil rich regions. In the name of Islam, attempts are being made by the Afghanistan-based militant organisation to capture power in these countries.

Earlier, Pakistan had no problem pushing its goals in Central Asia and funds were made available from the conservative Arab allies. Now in the changed international situation, U.S.-Iran and Saudi-Iranian relations are improving. Russia's influence is declining in the region and the U.S. is planning to bring oil and gas through a pipeline to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. Therefore, the U.S. now wants peace in Afghanistan and is pressuring Islamabad to improve its ties with India. The other important development is the growing Indo-American business relations, since New Delhi has adopted the policy of economic liberalisation.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the U.S. especially at a time when its allies in the Gulf are facing the economic crunch and are not prepared to back its Kashmir agenda. Besides, they do not want to annoy their Western allies.

Pakistan's political leadership finds it difficult to ignore Washington's policy pronouncements but the religio-political organisations such as the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jamiat-Ulema-e- Islam are not prepared to accept the Western nations' dictates so easily. Pakistan's defence establishment is greatly influenced by the Jamaat and the Deoband because of its long association with the militant Islamic organisations and its involvement in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Thus, it is uncomfortable with the Lahore Declaration, which talks of fostering friendship between India and Pakistan. The Pakistan army's interest lies in continuing the conflict with India, in the Taliban control of Afghanistan and in the establishment of Islamic states in the newly-independent secular region of Central Asia. Besides, it also wants to contain the Iranian influence in the region.

It is not just a coincidence that the Kargil infiltration has taken place at a time when India and Pakistan were involved in improving their relations. Earlier, the Taliban captured northern Afghanistan. And, it happened when the Western nations were in the process of re-establishing their ties with Iran. In both the cases, one cannot rule out the Pakistan army's involvement.

Pakistan is now totally isolated in the international community and is trapped in its own game. If it accepts the U.S.' dictates, then it will have to face opposition from the powerful Jamaat, the Deobandis and the security forces. But if it goes against the West's wishes, it will find it difficult to get support from the Islamic and international community. In both cases, it will face a serious internal crisis.