America's Worst Nightmare ?

CBS News, 60 MINUTES

Sunday, October 15, 2000

Co-host/correspondent: Steve Kroft

Producer: Leslie Cockburn

STEVE KROFT: (Voiceover) Imagine a country with an arsenal of nuclear bombs where the elected prime minister is in jail and the generals who have taken power are beholden to Islamic radicals who revere Osama bin Laden and hate the United States.

You know that the US State Department considers you to be a terrorist?

Mr. FAZLUR RAHMAN KHALIL: (Through Translator) Yes, I know the Americans have declared me a terrorist.

KROFT: Do you support Pakistan's nuclear weapons program?

Mr. KHALIL: (Through Translator) Yes, of course. God has ordered us to make nuclear weapons.

(Footage of Captain Rand Harrell; Harrell entering plane)

The turmoil in the Middle East this past week has demonstrated once again that peace is a fragile commodity and that terrorism is still a threat to US security. But the Middle East is not the only place that bears watching. Imagine a country with nuclear weapons where the elected prime minister is in jail and the generals who seized power are beholden to Islamic radicals who revere the terrorist Osama bin Laden. The country is Pakistan, now competing for the title of America's worst nightmare.

Currently engaged in a nuclear standoff with its next-door neighbor India, Pakistan is nearly bankrupt and sliding into anarchy. There is no other country in the world where 100,000 well-armed militant fundamentalists could end up controlling nuclear weapons--what some people call the Islamic bomb.

(Footage of Pakistan; Muslims; Pakistani people)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Pakistan was created just over 50 years ago as an Islamic state, a haven for India's Muslims who wanted self-rule. Today the country is coming apart at the seams.

Pakistan is dead broke, its treasury looted by previous governments, its economy drained by institutional corruption. Only about 1 percent of the people here pay any taxes and those who do pay taxes are not the richest people in the country. To make matters worse, the political and business elite has borrowed billions of dollars from Pakistani banks with no intention of ever repaying the loans.

(Footage of Pakistani people; weapons of mass destruction; Pakistan countryside)

KROFT: (Voiceover) There are 140 million people, more than half of them illiterate, with no access to clean water. But for such a poor country, it has very sophisticated weapons, many supplied by the United States, at least until Pakistan tested its first nuclear bomb and the US cut off all aid.

(Footage of warning sign)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Just a few miles down the road from the capital of Islamabad, there is a stark warning to foreigners that they will be thrown into jail if they approach a secret installation called Kahuta, part of Pakistan's nuclear weapons complex.

(Footage of satellite imagery of Kahuta; Pike and Kroft talking)

Mr. JOHN PIKE (Federation of American Scientists): (Voiceover) If you know where to look, you can basically see the fence line.

KROFT: (Voiceover) But with the latest satellite imagery, John Pike, from a group called the Federation of American Scientists, has been able to analyze Pakistan's weapons program from his computer in Washington.

What is this right here?

(Footage of satellite imagery of Khushab)

Mr. PIKE: (Voiceover) This is the plutonium production reactor at Khushab which was constructed with Chinese assistance.

(Footage of Pike and Kroft talking; satellite imagery photos)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Pakistan claims it built the bomb in self-defense, to keep the Indian army from invading its borders. John Pike says the country's nuclear program is much further along than Washington has publicly acknowledged.

Mr. PIKE: In addition to building uranium bombs within the last few years, they've also gotten into the long-range ballistic missile business.

(Footage of satellite imagery photos)

KROFT: (Voiceover) The missile technology originally came from the Chinese and the North Koreans, but the Pakistanis are now building their own missiles which are capable of reaching every major city in India.

How many bombs do you think they have?

Mr. PIKE: It's difficult to say how many bombs Pakistan currently has. A good estimate would probably be around 25, 35, something like that, certainly enough to fight a major nuclear war.

(Footage of General Pervez Musharraf and Kroft talking; General Musharraf with other military personnel)

KROFT: (Voiceover) The man in charge of those weapons is Pakistan's new chief executive, General Pervez Musharraf, who took over the country last October in a military coup.

You're proud of your nuclear weapons.

General PERVEZ MUSHARRAF: I am, certainly, for Pakistan's sake.

KROFT: Under what circumstances would you use them?

Gen. MUSHARRAF: I would never like to use them, first of all, but if you--you've asked me a direct question when would I use them, it woul—I think if Pakistan's security gets jeopardized, then only the--one would like to think of it.

KROFT: How secure are those nuclear weapons?

Gen. MUSHARRAF: Very secure. The national command authority is in place. And they are extremely secure. And this is my guarantee.

(Footage of Pakistani government building; Nawaz Sharif; ancient Moghul fort; village)

KROFT: (Voiceover) The weapons may be secure, but Pakistan's political leadership is not. The last leader to give his guarantee was Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, now serving a double life sentence for terrorism imprisoned in an ancient Moghul fort. Among the crimes Sharif is accused of are trying to kill General Musharraf and bankrupting the country.

Gen. MUSHARRAF: I was very sure that people of Pakistan were fed up of what was going on. They were fed up, simply fed up.

(Footage of Pakistani people; personnel)

KROFT: (Voiceover) If Musharraf fails to restore confidence in the crumbling state, there is widespread fear that the country and its nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of Muslim fundamentalists, one of the few cohesive forces left in the country.

(Footage of Pakistani people worshipping)

KROFT: (Voiceover) With Pakistan's institutions on the verge of collapse, the job of educating the country's poor has fallen to religious extremists whose main desire is to see a united Muslim nation stretching from Pakistan to the former Soviet republics.

There is a great deal of concern in the United States about the possibility, if you fail, of the country falling into the hands of religious fanatics...

Gen. MUSHARRAF: OK.

KROFT: ...who will have access to...

Gen. MUSHARRAF: To--to bombs and to our nuclear--OK. I--I don't think that is--that is going to take place. Never has a religious party won seats in our assemblies, never. Pakistan is a very moderate Islamic country, and I mean it.

(Footage of Pakistani people; religious school; Samiul Haq and Kroft talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) But the most radical religious parties no longer believe in elections. They've said publicly they want a full-scale Islamic revolution in Pakistan. This is one of more than 4,000 Madrosses or religious schools that now dot the Pakistani countryside. This one is run by Samiul Haq, one of the most revered and radical leaders in Pakistan.

There are people in the United States that say that it's not a healthy situation to have religious leaders so close to a nuclear bomb.

Mr. SAMIUL HAQ: (Through Translator) We were hurt when we heard this term, 'the Islamic bomb.' If we religious leaders have nuclear bombs on our hands, it would promote peace and security in the region.

(Footage of Haq with others; Kroft with others; from religious school)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Haq's followers espouse causes like the death penalty for blaspheme, stoning for adultery, forbidding women from working and banning television. His son showed us around and introduced us to some of the 2,500 students.

How old are these boys?

Unidentified Man: These are between 7 and 10.

(Footage of Kroft with others; from religious school)

KROFT: (Voiceover) The money to run this and other Madrosses pours in front Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. There are new dorms for 3,000 students, even a computer room.

What do you use the computers for?

Unidentified Man: We believe new technology.

(Footage of Kroft with others; tanks; of poster that says 'FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitive: Usama bin Laden'; bin Laden)

KROFT: (Voiceover) They also believe in the cause. Among the graduates are 90 percent of the leadership of the Taliban, the fundamentalist group that now rules Afghanistan just down the road from Haq's school. Here they openly lavish praise on Osama bin Laden, the man the US believes is responsible for bombing two US embassies. It is Haq's graduates who are now bin Laden's protectors.

How do you regard Osama bin Laden?

Mr. HAQ: (Through Translator) What do you think of Abraham Lincoln?

(Footage of Haq and Kroft talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) The United States is pressuring the Pakistani government to shut down Samiul Haq's operation and rein in other extremist groups around the country, but General Musharraf is in no position to do so even if he wanted to.

Mr. HAQ: (Through Translator) If anyone even dares closing down these schools in Pakistan, the government will be gone within days.

KROFT: How would you do it?

Mr. HAQ: (Through Translator) Our army is also a Muslim army. So if any general tries to do this, the army will turn against him.

(Footage of military personnel)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Some of Musharraf's top generals are known to be sympathetic to the fundamentalists. So any crackdown could bring down Musharraf's government.

Mr. AMED RASHEED: There is considerable support for the Islamic parties in--in the military.

(Footage of Rasheed and Kroft talking; Islamic militants)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Amed Rasheed is one of Pakistan's top journalists and a leading authority on Islamic militants. He says somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Islamic militants have fought and trained in Afghanistan and then returned home to Pakistan.

What kind of a political force are they within Pakistan?

Mr. RASHEED: Well, I think, you know, they are very powerful force. What we're seeing is that if they want to bring government to a halt, they want to bring the economy to a halt using their street power, they can certainly do it.

KROFT: If push came to shove and the army was asked to crack down on the fundamentalists, would they?

Mr. RASHEED: I don't see the army cracking down on the fundamentalists.

(Footage of General Anthony Zinni and Kroft talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) One person who has kept a close eye on all of this is Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, the outgoing commander of US forces in South Asia.

Isn't this really the first case where you've had nuclear weapons in the hands of a government that was really politically unstable?

General ANTHONY ZINNI (Marine Corps): I think it is. My worry is that Musharraf may be the--the last hope. We could have fundamentalists in another fundamentalist state that looks like Iran. That could be dangerous for obvious reasons, but we could have complete chaos. We could have something that looks like Afghanistan.

KROFT: You could have in a few years nuclear weapons in Pakistan in the hands of extremist religious leaders.

Gen. ZINNI: Oh, I believe that that's very possible.

(Footage of people arranging weaponry; Lashkar Etiba; weapon being set off; building being shot at; people talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) What concerns General Zinni is the tens of thousands of the Islamic militants are not only battle tested but well-armed. Although we were forbidden to film, we managed to smuggle a hidden camera into this 200-acre compound belonging to the militant Islamic group called Lashkar Etiba which armed, trained and sent Islamic soldiers off to wage holy war in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya. One of the group's leaders told us his ideal recruit is a boy who has some money to contribute to the cause and wants to die. 'Our strategy,' they told us, 'is to be martyred.'

(Footage of sign reading: 'Foreigners Please Stop Here'; border; military personnel)

KROFT: (Voiceover) Right now, Lashkar fighters are waging a guerrilla war against India, running what they call sure-shot suicide missions across the line of control that divides Pakistani and Indian Kashmir, the border province that is bitterly disputed and has already sparked two wars. To get there, they must pass through a strictly controlled army zone where all movement at the front is tracked from Pakistan army bunkers. The army shows no signs of wanting to stop the Lashkar soldiers.

The view from Washington is that you've got tens of thousands of militants in this country that are using Pakistan as a base to conduct military operations in Afghanistan and in Kashmir and that they're doing it with your support.

Gen. MUSHARRAF: There is no government sponsorship of any kind of military activity either in Afghanistan or Kashmir. There's no such thing.

(Footage of people riding vehicle; countryside; people; Pakistani people)

KROFT: (Voiceover) But the most recent State Department report on terrorism concludes otherwise. It says Pakistan's government has supported groups that engage in violence in Kashmir, and it has provided indirect support for terrorists in Afghanistan. It says the government has tolerated terrorists living and moving freely within its territory.

(Footage of Fazlur Rahman Khalil and Kroft talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) In Islamabad, not far from General Musharraf's office, we met with one of the militants singled out in the State Department report, Fazlur Rahman Khalil, commander of a group called Harkot Omush Adeen.

You know that the US State Department considers you to be a terrorist.

Mr. FAZLUR RAHMAN KHALIL: (Through Translator) Yes, I know the Americans have declared me a terrorist.

KROFT: The Pakistani government knows that you're here, knows that you live here in the country.

Mr. KHALIL: (Through Translator) Of course they know it. Why not?

KROFT: One of the reasons that the United States is so concerned about this part of the world is because the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Do you support Pakistan's nuclear weapons program?

Mr. KHALIL: (Through Translator) Yes, of course. God has ordered us to make nuclear weapons.

(Footage of personnel; satellite video of attack; Khalil and Kroft talking)

KROFT: (Voiceover) According to the US government, Khalil's group operates terrorist training camps. In fact, some of his men were killed and injured when the US launched a cruise missile attack against Osama bin Laden's base camp in 1998. The State Department says Khalil has threatened to take revenge by staging attacks against US targets in Pakistan.

Is the United States government trying to pressure the Pakistani government to stop your activities?

Mr. KHALIL: (Through Translator) Yes, Americans are putting pressure on Pakistan.

KROFT: If the Pakistani government tried to shut down your operations and the operations of people like you, what do you think the reaction would be of the Pakistani military?

Mr. KHALIL: (Through Translator) If it takes an unjust step against us, it will not be in power for long.

(Footage of Pakistani people; Islamic militants)

KROFT: (Voiceover) So far, General Musharraf has not cracked down on any leading Islamic militants.

There are people here that said the line between the military and some of these militant groups is fuzzy. Are you confident that--that your military is absolutely trustworthy?

Gen. MUSHARRAF: Yes, absolutely. This is not a--I'm very proud to say that Pakistan is not a banana republic.

Gen. ZINNI: We don't need another failed state in the region. We don't need another failed state with nuclear weapons. We don't need a--a state that--that could end up--end up in a nuclear war with the Indians. So I think it's what could happen to Pakistan if Musharraf fails.

KROFT: General Zinni believes the United States should do what it can to shore up General Musharraf's regime. He suggests dropping some of the sanctions now in place against Pakistan, and he supports providing economic assistance through the International Monetary Fund. Others in the administration are more cautious. They say Musharraf is not fully in control of his generals and that supplying him with aid that could find its way to the militants might come back to haunt the United States.